Blanchet, J., Dolan, C., Iyengar, G., and Lall, U.

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The goal of this paper is to create a simple, yet robust, statistical model which can be used to quantify the risk present in a portfolio of mining assets. In pursuit of this goal it aims at explaining a systematic approach which takes as input a model which is constructed based on fundamental economic principles and simple statistical technniques (e.g. a mixed-effect linear model with explanatory variables chosen from economic reasoning). Additional enrichment is then imposed, based on input coming from a more detailed model (built, for instance, from bottom up). And finally, the robustification step is obtained by computing worst-case performance analysis among all models that are within some distance of our simple model. This step quantifies the error induced by using a simple-yet-tractable model, which might be incorrect.